Demographic Change and Security in the Indo-Pacific

Professor Andrew L. Oros, Washington College.

Moderated by AIIA National Executive Director Bryce Wakefield

The Indo-Pacific region will experience big demographic changes in the coming decades. By 2050 the populations of China and Japan (which possess two of the region’s most powerful militaries) will shrink by 75 million while the population of Asia as a whole will increase by over 700 million, 300 million in India alone. The average age in China and Japan (as well as South Korea, Taiwan, and elsewhere) – will increase dramatically, while other countries will experience a youth bulge. Yet, demography is not destiny. Japan’s military has become the most powerful and capable it has ever been in the past decade, despite a shrinking and aging population. In South Korea and Taiwan, universal male conscription is ending or shortening despite the reduced numbers of eligible young men. My initial research suggests that the implications of demographic change that are posited in the existing literature are not as straightforward as they appear. Demographic change is an important factor, but so are differences in security threats, the availability of technological solutions, and whether a political and social system is willing and able to adapt. This webinar will provide an overview of the national security implications of demographic change for the Indo-Pacific region, with an emphasis on future regional security dynamics that will result from this change.

Andrew L. Oros is Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Washington College in Chestertown, Maryland, USA. Beginning in September 2020, he will be a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC to pursue his sabbatical leave project on “America’s Aging Allies in Asia: National Security and Demographic Change in the Indo-Pacific.”  He conducted research for his last book, Japan’s Security Renaissance (Columbia University Press, 2017), as an invited research fellow at Japan’s National Institute of Defense Studies and as a Japan Foundation Abe fellow based at Keio University in Tokyo and Peking University in Beijing. He also is the author of two other books and numerous articles and book chapters on issues related to East Asian security and Japanese politics. He is a graduate of the University of Southern California and earned his doctorate in political science from Columbia University.

This event is online only. After registering, on the day of the event you will receive a follow-up confirmation email containing further details on how to join the webinar. Registrations close at 9:40am on the morning of the event. (If you believe you have not received an email by 9am please check your junk folder! A reminder will be sent at 9:45am)

The event will start at 10am AEST (Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne time, UTC+10).

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Webinar ID: 893 5515 0949

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